High-spending Irish coalition eyes re-election

Ireland's two main governing parties look on course to return to power in an election thanks to a giveaway October budget and a loss of momentum by opposition Sinn Fein, a result that would buck a global trend of voters rejecting incumbents. Prime Minister Simon Harris called the election on the heels of a 10.5 billion euro ($A17 billion) budget that began to put money into voters' pockets during the campaign, largesse made possible by billions of euros of foreign multinational corporate tax revenues. An opinion poll on Wednesday put Harris' Fine Gael on 20 per cent, level with Sinn Fein and just behind its main coalition partner Fianna Fail on 21 per cent. A broadly similar result in 2020 led the two centre-right parties to govern without left-wing rival Sinn Fein and they have redoubled a pledge to do so again this time. The main risk to their return would be if a slump in support for Fine Gael in the past two weeks of the campaign worsens, a danger heightened by the fact around half of its current lawmakers are not seeking re-election, leaving the party reliant on lesser known candidates. A campaign full of missteps, culminating last weekend in a viral clip of Harris walking away from an exasperated care worker, has cost Fine Gael a quarter of its support since the start of the campaign, a Monday poll showed. "Sinn Fein would have to do much better than the polls suggest and Fine Gael would have to do much worse for things to change significantly," said Theresa Reidy, senior lecturer in politics at University College Cork. That is not impossible, but Sinn Fein would have to beat the 25 per cent they secured in 2020. That would still be sharply lower than the 30-35 per cent Sinn Fein had in polls in 2022 and 2023, a level that signalled it was on course to govern. Its electoral coalition has since begun to fray, in part due to anger among working class voters at Sinn Fein's relatively liberal immigration policies. Government parties have faced widespread frustration during the campaign at their inability to turn the healthiest public finances in Europe into better public services, such as healthcare, more affordable housing and adequate support for vulnerable people.